For a large share of the population, total travel demand is governed by resource constraints, both time and money, not a diminished desire to participate in activities – many that require travel. But the desire to travel to pursue personal opportunity and pleasure remains potent. And those urban millennials may be contributing to moderated demand even if not to the extent hyped by advocates of declining VMT. The role of technology in moderating travel demand is still at work with e-commerce, distance learning, telecommuting, and improved travel logistics dampening demand. Travel Behavior Trends, Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida, April 2006). Many of the considerations that contributed to the slowdown in VMT growth in the early part of this century are still relevant as argued in The Case for Moderate Growth in Vehicle Miles of Travel: A Critical Juncture in U.S. Perhaps most important will be understanding how VMT will trend going forward. Coupled with 2.5 million additional persons in the workforce and some wage growth, the VMT growth is understandable. Data from the National Household Travel Survey show travel goes up approximately 100 miles per capita annually per $1000 in household income for low and moderate income households (see Figure 2). The pronounced decline in fuel prices, with average 2015 prices 30 percent below the 2013 average and with current prices 47 percent below the 2013 average price, could explain part of the VMT increase.Īnother way to think about the impact of lower fuel prices is to consider that the average household has an estimated $1000-$1500 more in discretionary income annually as a result of the lower gas prices relative to 2013. Historically travel elasticity to fuel cost has been estimated to be around -0.02 to -0.04 in the short term and considerably larger in the long term. The reduction in fuel price is reasonably hypothesized as a contributor to VMT growth. Freight and these uses of non-household vehicles collectively constitute 24 percent of all roadway travel, hence deserve attention when interpreting trends. Truck VMT data will be available later and data on VMT for commercial vehicles, public vehicles, and utility vehicles can only be guesstimated. Urban travel constitutes 69 percent of total VMT. The change in VMT in rural areas increased 3.86 percent versus 3.37 percent for urban roads suggesting long distance and freight travel growth. While current data on individual travel behavior changes is not available, even the aggregate data can shed some light on the trends.
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